Crude Oil Price Determinants
نویسندگان
چکیده
Based on monthly observations, I specify an econometric model capturing the driving forces behind the crude oil price series in recent years. A large set of covariates, such as supply and demand variables as well as futures market variables, is used to test the impact on the crude oil price. Current price movements are a result of scarce refining capacity and speculators betting on higher prices. The results also question OPEC’s market power. JEL Classification: C51, Q41
منابع مشابه
Modeling and Forecasting Effects of Crude Oil Price Changes on the US and UK GDP
       This paper proposes a new forecasting model for investigating relationship between the price of crude oil, as an important energy source and GDP of the US, as the largest oil consumer, and the UK, as the oil producer. GMDH neural network and MLFF neural network approaches, which are both non-linear models, are employed to forecast GDP responses to the oil price changes. The resul...
متن کاملEffect of Ship Fuel Sulfur Reduction Law on Iranian Oil Price (IMO Law)
In recent decades, the increase of pollution from consumption of oil and petroleum products has led to development of many environmental laws. It is important for Iranian policy makers to be informed about the impact of such laws on oil prices, given the dependence of the country’s budget on oil revenues. Under a new International Maritime Organization regulation passed in mid-2016, ships are r...
متن کاملVolatility and Commodity Price Dynamics
Commodity prices tend to be volatile, and volatility itself varies over time. Changes in volatility can affect market variables by directly affecting the marginal value of storage, and by affecting a component of the total marginal cost of production: the opportunity cost of exercising the option to produce the commodity now rather than waiting for more price information. I examine the role of ...
متن کاملVolatility and Commodity Price Dynamics by 01 - 007 August 2001
Commodity prices tend to be volatile, and volatility itself varies over time. Changes in volatility can affect market variables by directly affecting the marginal value of storage, and by affecting a component of the total marginal cost of production: the opportunity cost of exercising the option to produce the commodity now rather than waiting for more price information. I examine the role of ...
متن کاملBrent crude oil Price Forecast with Hybrid Model of Nonlinear Grey Model and Linear Arima Waste Correction
The characteristics of crude oil and the factors affecting the price of this energy carrier have caused its price forecast to always be considered by researchers, oil market activists, governments and policy makers. Since the price of crude oil is affected by many factors, therefore, continuous studies should be done in this way so that the estimates made over time, the results are more accurat...
متن کامل